Base Rates: The Safe Way to Make Smarter Decisions and Prevent Recklessness
History can help you improve your decisions
Base rates give me the same comfort a visit to my grandparents gave me when I was young.
Yes, just like my nan and grandad, base rates are safe and packed full of wisdom. When I want fact over opinion on stuff I know little about, the mental model of base rates is where I go. The concept is to use historical data as it relates to your decision and use it as a baseline for deciding.
When we don’t know better, base rates enable us to make smarter decisions.
When we don’t know better, base rates prevent us from making reckless decisions.
What are Base Rates?
Base rates in decision-making explain known probabilities established from historical data. A simple example is knowing what the temperature in London in May will be. Historical data tells us the temperature ranges from15 to 19 degrees with it becoming warmer later in the month. This information forms a base rate for you to make many decisions, from what to wear, what to eat and even when and where to eat.
Of course, base rates won’t always be right. But in a quest to always be brilliant, sometimes avoiding stupidity is easier…
