Worst Case Scenario Examples: The Pros and Cons of Using Them to Win
Planning isn’t all its cracked up to be.
We all want to win.
So it seems logical to look for worst case scenario examples when planning a task you want to win. You can manage risk by conducting a thought exercise to reveal your vulnerabilities. This seems like the right thing to do.
If you can foresee what might go wrong, then you can prepare to avoid these unwanted situations. You would assume avoiding the worst leaves you with what’s left-winning outcomes.
But what if you’re in a completely new position with no experience of what could go right or wrong?
There are no base rates to fall back on. All you have is a hypothesis of what you think might happen. Then, the only way to make progress is to test and learn.
No amount of pondering the worst case is going to reveal information that doesn’t exist.
What we have are two plausible situations where we could look for examples of the worst case scenario and only one where it actually helps.
And even then the exercise won’t enable us to avoid entropy. It means there are pros and cons to looking for the worst case-and we need to be aware of them.
